#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut last night signaled a dovish stance as expected, but Bitcoin and Ethereum responded by falling sharply—this reversal was fierce. But this is only the beginning—the real variables are yet to come.

The key point is that Powell made it very clear: future guidance depends on economic data. Tonight at 21:30, the release of US initial jobless claims will directly determine the short-term trend of the crypto market.

Why is this data so critical? Simply put, it’s to verify whether the employment market has truly weakened—which is also the core reason behind the Fed’s shift to a more dovish stance. Initial claims are the most sensitive barometer of employment health; any unexpected fluctuations will be amplified by the market, directly reshaping expectations for interest rate cuts.

Tonight’s critical threshold is the 220,000 figure. The future trend is quite straightforward:

**Data below 220,000** (employment remains solid): The Fed will have less reason to continue cutting rates; crypto assets may continue to be suppressed, and last night’s plunge was just the beginning.

**Data above 220,000** (employment starts to weaken): Expectations for rate cuts will intensify, risk asset sentiment will rebound, and Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to surge quickly.

Prepare mentally: tonight’s release isn’t just about a single data point but about testing whether the new market logic holds. In the coming period, the crypto market will be driven by a series of economic data, with significant volatility. Stay rational—act when you should, observe when you should.