Another media outlet has jumped to a conclusion—"Expect a rate cut next year."

Come on, the dot plot is right there, the data is crystal clear:

• 4 people think no cut
• 4 people say one cut (25BP)
• 4 people vote for two cuts (50BP)

These three opinions are equally represented! Why is it automatically assumed that "a rate cut is expected"?

And if you look at the other votes:

There are 3 people predicting one rate hike, 2 people expect three rate cuts (75BP), 1 person thinks there could be four cuts (100BP), and even 1 person predicts six cuts (150BP).

I did a quick calculation: [3×25 + 4×0 + 4×(-25) + 4×(-50) + 2×(-75) + 1×(-100) + 1×(-150)] ÷ 19 = -32.9

On average, that's a rate cut of 32.9 basis points, which clearly exceeds one cut. Why is the media simplifying it to "one rate cut"?

Frankly, the Fed officials are not really "divided"; they are simply—no, conclusion, no agreement.

The issues of employment and economic weakness are basically settled, and the Fed's statement also mentions this. But the problem is, after the rate cuts in September-October, the CPI data for October-November are not complete. Most of October's data is missing, and the November data won't be released until December 18th. The officials themselves don't know if this round of rate cuts has caused inflation to rebound.

After another rate cut in December, whether employment and the economy can recover remains uncertain.

The Fed officials are not anonymous voters—they either communicate in advance or are in agreement, deliberately throwing out this "no answer" dot plot to the outside world.

Things they haven't even figured out themselves, and the media is eager to jump to conclusions first.