Last night’s 25 basis point rate cut finally arrived as expected. However, markets tend to interpret "anticipated news being priced in as negative" — the recent rebound over the past few weeks essentially front-loaded the good news of the rate cut. Now that the actual cut has been implemented, the market could abruptly halt this rally at any moment.

Looking ahead, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in the short term is essentially zero, while the likelihood of Japan raising rates has soared to 90%. Monetary policy is clearly tightening. Plus, with Christmas approaching and the need for capital replenishment, liquidity will become increasingly tight. Without any new positive catalysts to support the market, the next half month, and possibly January and February of next year, will likely see weak performance.

Honestly, current liquidity is nowhere near the high points of a bull market. Even minor fluctuations can cause funds to clash, and prices may directly break below the previous low of 80,000, seeking further support. Based on these assessments, I am quite pessimistic about the market trend over the next three months.

Specifically regarding ZEC, after the rate cut news broke last night, it directly broke below the short-term support at 420, dropping all the way below 400. Considering the ongoing bottom-finding expectation of the broader market, this weekly rebound is probably coming to an end. Short-term funds have shifted to speculative tokens like Pippin, leaving ZEC somewhat neglected. Liquidity is worsening, and further downward movement is likely to continue, making a counter-trend rebound unlikely to be seen soon.

The recent rebound peaked around 450. My previous orders in the 450-500 range are probably now impossible to fill. In terms of positioning strategy, I plan to consider gradually reducing holdings if the price drops below 300, even better below 240. During the decline, I will avoid aggressive moves and only adjust positions during rebounds at higher levels.