Lately, my DMs are almost overwhelmed: "Is this wave the end of the bull market?"

Honestly, when I first got into crypto in 2017, I didn't buy into the "Four-Year Curse" narrative—thought it was just seasoned players scaring newbies. It wasn't until I saw Bitcoin plummet from $126,000 to $94,000, with altcoins getting cut in half and many evaporating by 80-90%, that I truly understood: bull and bear markets are not just talk—they're brutal realities hammered out by the market with real money.

When Bitcoin was still hovering around $110,000 at the beginning of the month, those small-cap coins were multiplying five or ten times in a day. I’ve seen this scene before—last time was at the end of the 2021 bull run, after which the market was littered with corpses. Back then, I mentioned risk control and was mocked for "calling a bear" and "the bull market is just beginning, it's too early to panic."

And what happened? The entire market with $19 billion in leverage was wiped out, and all the gains this year were wiped away. The raving voices of euphoria have long gone silent. This sharp decline was never a black swan—in the most euphoric days, the script was already written.

More importantly, it's been 18 months since the halving. Looking at historical data, each cycle tends to turn around this point, with no exceptions. Bitcoin can still rely on institutional support, but what about altcoins? Without a strong hand to catch the falling knife, they’re getting wrecked worse than anyone.

From a technical perspective, the outlook isn't optimistic: the 200-day moving average for the three-year cycle has been broken, and the 365-day moving average is also holding less and less. Everyone is now watching the critical $72,000 level. If that support fails, the consequences could be unimaginable. Add in the Fed's rate cut expectations falling flat, officials frequently hinting at hawkish policies, and government shutdowns tightening liquidity...

Honestly, this year's "Christmas rally" is probably toast.

You ask how I see the end of the year? Very straightforward: likely to see repeated tug-of-war between $80,000 and $90,000. If it falls below $80,000, then we're really in trouble—possibly the start of a cycle-level bear market.

The crypto world never moves in a straight line: bulls don’t rise forever, bears don’t fall endlessly. Every cycle confirms the same truth: prosperity breeds decline, and adversity gives way to fortune. We are now at the final chapter of a rally, watching it gradually transition into the next phase.

Rather than obsess over whether it's a bull or bear market now, it's better to stay calm: save some bullets, identify the trend clearly, and wait for the right moment.