The three interest rate cuts in 2025 have finally come to an end! Now, should we start thinking about how the Federal Reserve will act in 2026?

There's interesting information hidden in the latest dot plot—19 officials' attitudes are quite divided: 7 believe there should be no cut next year at all, 4 support a 25 basis point cut, another 4 lean towards 50 basis points, 2 advocate for 75 basis points, and the remaining two are more aggressive, calling for 100 and 150 basis points respectively.

Let's do some quick math: the camp of no cut vs. cuts is 7 to 12, clearly leaning towards a rate cut.

Now, let's look at the magnitude. Although this is a bit of a rough estimate, we'll calculate an average: (4×25 + 4×50 + 2×75 + 100 + 150) ÷ 12 ≈ 58 basis points. In other words, there's a high probability of at least two rate cuts next year.

Don't forget another variable—Powell might be stepping down soon. After the new chair takes over, I personally lean towards even lower interest rates.

This makes me angry—those so-called big institutional forecasts are simply ridiculous! I don't even know how they arrive at these conclusions; do they just say things offhand without fearing to damage their reputation? Also, I saw a "big V" influencer confidently claim that Bitcoin will easily drop to $30,000—such judgments I completely disagree with.

Here's a screenshot for reference—let's see who gets proven wrong when next year comes.

Don't be swayed by reports from institutions or influencers. The most reliable thing in the market is your own understanding and judgment. Stick to your chosen direction and take responsibility for your decisions—that's the real deal.