2025-12-11 17:26:09

Regarding the famous four-year cycle of BTC, there has been quite a bit of controversy lately. My opinion? Don't rush to draw conclusions yet.

If this round of market can hit a new all-time high again in early 2025 (around January-February), the traditional cycle might really be rewritten. But if it can't even cross the $100,000 mark, it's pretty much locked in for a downtrend in 2026.

But to put it another way, whether the market turns bullish or bearish, this space has never lacked opportunities—it's really about how individuals seize the right timing.

BTC-2,49%

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TokenAlchemist

· 2025-12-14 15:26

nah the halving cycle copium is getting exhausting tbh, but i'll bite—if we don't breach 100k by q1 it's basically game over for the traditional thesis. the inefficiency vectors are collapsing too fast though, feels like we're just watching liquidation cascades that'll reshape everything anyway

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ProbablyNothing

· 2025-12-13 14:11

A hundred thousand dollars is really the critical threshold; if we can't get past it, the bear market rhythm is locked in. The cycle theory is becoming less reliable, but then again, there's always a chance, it all depends on who can operate aggressively. Entering a downtrend in 2026? That would be a new bottom-fishing opportunity. Honestly, stressing over cycles now is pointless; the main thing is whether you can hold on. Will the all-time high be broken at the beginning of the year? This cycle really feels like it's about to change. Forget about cycle laws; either this round rewrites history or locks in a bear market. Just be prepared for both. The 100,000 mark being hit is basically a precursor; be mentally prepared for 2026.

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TokenomicsDetective

· 2025-12-13 13:23

Is the $100,000 mark really that crucial? I don't think so; historical data doesn't always repeat itself. I've already said that the cycle theory has become invalid by now, why keep rigidly sticking to it? Whether Bitcoin can break through $100,000, I don't really care; it mainly depends on liquidity, that's what really matters. Here we go again talking about timing, but it's easy to say; actually doing it is deadly. The cycle has been rewritten again, and last year they said the same thing, but look what happened... Instead of worrying about the four-year cycle, it might be better to focus more on what on-chain data is telling us. If we can't break through the $100,000 threshold, that would be the real issue.

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FudVaccinator

· 2025-12-11 17:56

If $100,000 can't be broken, then just wait for the show in 2026 Wait, this cycle theory is becoming more and more mystical Rather than obsessing over cycles, it's better to think about how not to get cut Relying on rhythm to make a living, easy to say It feels like every time there's a new "rewriting cycle" theory... By early 2025, the answer will be clear. Anyway, I'm just waiting to see

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RamenDeFiSurvivor

· 2025-12-11 17:54

Wait a minute, 100,000 still can't be crossed? Then our current market trend is really a bit uncertain. How many times have we missed deadlines? Still betting that a new high will be reached in January-February... Honestly, I believe the bear market in 2026 will come sooner, so I don't have to keep watching these "cycle theories." By the way, the crypto world is not short of opportunities, it's just that I'm afraid we won't have any bullets when the opportunity comes, haha.

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ImpermanentSage

· 2025-12-11 17:54

If you can't get past the 100,000 mark, we need to be mentally prepared. Breakthrough is fine, accept a breakdown if it happens, don't get caught up in the cycle. The four-year cycle is already outdated; now it's a capital cycle—whoever invests money controls the game. Rather than getting stuck on historical highs and stressing over it, think about how to bottom fish. Downward trend in 2026? Then what should I do now? Give me some guidance. Opportunities are indeed plentiful, but most people are just spectators; only a few truly know how to seize them. Not to mention, the $100,000 level is definitely a watershed—crossing it or not means two different worlds. The concept of cyclical law is just for listening; don't take it too seriously.

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TestnetFreeloader

· 2025-12-11 17:51

The $100,000 mark isn't really that significant; it all depends on whether we can break through in January and February.

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ChainMelonWatcher

· 2025-12-11 17:51

If 100,000 can't stop you, then you just have to accept it. See you in the bear market in 2026. --- The cycle is a predictor if it's accurate, and nonsense if it's not. Anyway, I'm just waiting to see. --- Instead of obsessing over cycles, ask yourself if you can seize the opportunity. That's the real question. --- Let's see the outcome by the end of January. Place your bet on this key level of 100,000. --- When the bear comes, accumulate; when the bull comes, sell. No matter how the cycle changes, it can't alter this logic. --- It sounds good, but in reality, it's all about luck and execution. Cycles are just for reference. --- I'm more concerned about whether I'll get trapped if I enter now. After the cycle, I will review. --- Rewriting the cycle? First, let BTC surpass 100,000 before bragging. --- I understand the principles, but the real challenge is to grasp the rhythm and avoid getting liquidated. --- No matter what cycle, I just hold on tightly and wait for the next decade.

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ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 2025-12-11 17:50

The 100,000 knife is really a problem, we'll see when the time comes

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