Landing an IPO slot in China? That used to be tough. Now it's borderline fantasy.

This year's market has thrown up walls that weren't there before. Companies queuing for listings are facing stricter scrutiny, longer wait times, and approval rates that've dropped off a cliff. What was already a competitive lottery has turned into something else entirely.

The regulatory environment keeps tightening while the backlog grows. Firms that might've had a shot 18 months ago are now stuck in limbo, burning cash while waiting for a green light that may never come. The window hasn't just narrowed—it's practically slammed shut for most players.

If you're betting on a mainland listing in 2025, you'd better have connections, perfect timing, and a backup plan. Preferably all three.