Let's talk about the upcoming macroeconomic situation.

The latest Federal Reserve dot plot has been released, and the tone is dovish—interest rate cuts are expected twice in 2026, one more in 2027, and no change in 2028. Seeing this, you understand that the liquidity flood expected by the market is not going to happen in the short term. A big shot previously said that the huge liquidity injection would bring a super cycle for BTC? It seems this script needs to be revised.

Then many people saw the Fed buy $40 billion in government bonds and immediately got excited: "Isn't this the start of balance sheet expansion and liquidity easing?" Hold on, don’t get too excited.

This $40 billion is actually part of RMP operations. Its purpose is not to stimulate the economy or actively inject liquidity, but to maintain a safe minimum reserve level in the banking system. Simply put, it’s to prevent the risk of funds being drained at the end of the year due to operations like the Treasury's allocations, corporate settlements, and tax payments, which could lead to systemic liquidity shortages.

Let's differentiate simply:

QE( Quantitative Easing) = actively expanding the balance sheet, lowering long-term interest rates, and increasing system liquidity. This is the real "liquidity injection."

QT( Quantitative Tightening) = actively shrinking the balance sheet, tightening the financial environment.

RMP = completely different from QE. It’s just about maintaining the water level and preventing systemic water shortages. Essentially, it’s about replacing the water that leaks out, not adding new water to the pool.

So, this does not count as balance sheet expansion. The Fed’s announcement clearly states: RMP will be maintained at a higher frequency until April 2026( because the Treasury will significantly increase non-reserve liabilities in April), but after April, as seasonal factors diminish, the scale of purchases will quickly decrease.

What truly determines liquidity tightening or loosening is not this technical operation like RMP, but whether the SLR will relax, whether banks can expand their balance sheets, whether the Treasury will continue to replenish its reserves, and whether the Fed will cut back on ON RRP scale.

Looking ahead, focus on two key dates: the non-farm payroll data for December 16( and November data), and the CPI data for December 18( and November data). Non-farm payroll figures are unlikely to look good—November is during the late stage of the government shutdown, and the economy is visibly impacted. The real focus should be on November’s CPI: if inflation does not rebound after the rate cuts in September-October, it could clear some obstacles for the Fed’s subsequent easing measures.

In summary, the current macro environment cannot be considered optimistic. At least, everyone’s hope for the Fed to loosen the reins in 2026 still seems wishful.