Grayscale: The Bitcoin 4-year cycle theory is invalid, and a new high may be reached in 2026

Source: BTCHaber Original Title: Grayscale’s Bitcoin Cycle Exit: “The 4-Year Bear Market Scenario May Not Repeat This Time” Original Link:

The Classic 4-Year Cycle Theory Faces Challenges

Recent Bitcoin corrections have sparked discussions about a “new bear market coming?” A leading research institution recently published an analysis suggesting that the traditional “peak after halving—decline” 4-year cycle argument is struggling to explain the current market structure.

The institution states that the current decline shares similar characteristics with natural adjustments in previous bull market cycles and does not indicate the onset of a long-term bear market.

The Two Main Arguments Against the “End of the Cycle” Theory

The main points of the report include:

1. Lack of Parabolic Rise and Retail FOMO

In previous cycles, the peak was usually preceded by a parabolic surge in prices, with many retail investors rushing in. However, this “bubble” phenomenon has not been observed in this cycle, so it is still too early to talk about a traditional cycle top.

2. Market Driving Forces Have Shifted from Retail to Institutions

The market structure has undergone a fundamental change. Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional buying now play new roles in price formation, breaking the previous “3 years of growth + 1 year of sharp decline” pattern.

Outlook for 2026: New Highs Are Not Impossible

The research institution believes that as the cycle theory wanes, Bitcoin has the potential to hit new all-time highs again in 2026. The current correction may simply be a normal adjustment within a bull market.

Macro Background Support

Looking ahead to 2026, two key factors could be bullish for Bitcoin:

• Improved Liquidity Environment: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, creating more favorable liquidity conditions for crypto assets
• Regulatory Cooperation: U.S. bipartisan efforts may reach consensus on cryptocurrency regulation, laying a clearer foundation for the market

Conclusion

The core view of the institution is: although Bitcoin’s supply still follows the 4-year halving cycle, price cycles do not necessarily have to follow historical templates. With increasing institutional capital and ETF influence, market behavior may deviate from traditional patterns. Therefore, it is premature to interpret the current correction as the “beginning of a long-term bear market”; a more reasonable understanding is that it is a natural pullback within an upward trend.