Cathie Wood states that the 4-year Bitcoin cycle will be "interrupted"

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Cathie Wood afirma que ciclo de 4 anos do Bitcoin será “interrompido” Original Link: Famous technology investor Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, argued that the historical four-year cycle of Bitcoin will be “interrupted” as institutions have increased their positions in the asset.

If previously Bitcoin “regularly fell 75% to 90% in its early days,” today “volatility is decreasing,” Wood said in an interview on Tuesday (9).

“We believe that the movement of institutions into this new asset class will prevent much larger drops,” she added, suggesting that perhaps we saw the bottom a few weeks ago when Bitcoin hit US$ 81,000.

Bitcoin Cycles

Every four years, the reward for mining new blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain is halved. The last “halving” occurred on April 20, 2024, when the reward for new blocks was reduced to 3.125 bitcoins. Historically, halvings have triggered bull cycles by reducing the supply of new BTC.

Wood also expressed her belief that Bitcoin now functions more as a “risk asset” — one that moves in line with overall economic performance, like stocks or real estate. In contrast, a “safe-haven asset” (risk-off) is one that investors turn to during times of turbulence or volatility, such as gold during the 2008 financial crisis.

She argued that Bitcoin “has taken on the role of a safe-haven asset at different points in its history,” such as during the European sovereign debt crisis or the US regional bank turbulence in 2023. But now, she believes Bitcoin has returned to being a risk asset.

“Now, gold is more of a safe-haven asset,” she said. “We believe this is proof that we are scaling a wall of concerns. Investors are using gold as a hedge against geopolitical risk.”

Wood has continued to make crypto bullish bets in recent months. Ark bought additional shares in a cryptocurrency exchange, in a stablecoin issuer, and in its own Bitcoin ETF, the Ark 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ArkB), at the end of November.

The End of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle?

Wood is far from the only one predicting the end of Bitcoin’s historic “four-year cycle.” Earlier this week, the British bank Standard Chartered released a report arguing that the rise of ETF-based purchases has made the traditional halving cycle “irrelevant” as a price factor.

“With the rise of ETF-based purchases, we believe that the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price factor,” wrote analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, adding that “the logic of previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) — that is, prices peaked about 18 months after each halving and then fell — is no longer valid, in our view.”

Standard Chartered predicted that its thesis on the halving cycle will be confirmed in the first half of 2026, while reducing its Bitcoin price projection for 2025 from US$ 200,000 to US$ 100,000.