A wave of data hit in the early morning, and the latest probabilities from CME "Federal Reserve Watch" completely stunned the market.

Will there be a rate cut in January next year? The market only assigns a 24.4% chance, with the remaining 75.6% still betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to hold firm. But looking at March's market, the tone suddenly shifts—the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut jumps to 40.4%. The camp that maintains unchanged interest rates still accounts for 52%, but that 7.6% "violent 50 basis point cut" is the real dark horse.

Don’t underestimate this 7.6%. What are they betting on? They’re betting that economic data might collapse, forcing the Federal Reserve to take stronger action. Now with only three months until the March meeting, every non-farm payroll report and CPI release could reshuffle the entire probability table.

Behind the billion-dollar bets is the institutions’ true assessment of macro risks. The cracks in the high-interest-rate camp are emerging, and the crypto market is also watching the outcome of this game.