I have recently been considering a cross-year strategic plan.
According to the usual rhythm, the Federal Reserve Chair change in May next year could become a market turning point—new officials typically bring policy adjustment expectations, and historically, this time window often involves liquidity changes. Considering the current political climate, the successor is likely to favor a more dovish stance, which might coincide with the high point of market sentiment at the end of the cycle.
My own approach is as follows: Wait until the Bank of Japan implements the interest rate hike this month (this is almost certain), then gradually enter positions in BTC, ETH, and some leading platform's main tokens. Afterwards, every time there is a pullback, add to the positions. The holding method can be pure spot or slightly leverage up to 2x— but never overdo it.
The target exit time is around April 2026, just before that veteran officially hands over. No matter how high prices go by then, it’s best to lock in profits first.
The core of this logic is betting on the expected difference brought by macro narrative shifts. Of course, plans are one thing, and actual operations depend on market conditions.
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GrayscaleArbitrageur
· 9h ago
You're calculating this again, feeling like it's always so precise... When has the actual market ever followed the plan?
Wait, I'm a bit skeptical about the 2x leverage level; can it really hold during a pullback?
Can the May leadership change be confirmed? Politics are so unpredictable.
Honestly, it's just a gamble on liquidity; everything else is just packaging.
It feels a bit rushed to take profits before April next year. Why not hold for two more months?
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OnChainSleuth
· 9h ago
The Bank of Japan's rate hike is indeed a signal; the time to buy the dip has arrived.
I think doubling leverage still requires caution; if the correction exceeds expectations, you'll have to kneel.
The Federal Reserve's leadership change is basically a gamble on easing expectations, but there are too many uncertainties.
What if liquidity shrinks before the mid-term elections next year? Plans need to be adaptable at any time.
I agree with locking in profits; don't wait until the last hair is pulled out.
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MoonlightGamer
· 9h ago
Sounds plausible, but I'm just worried that plans might not keep up with changes. What if the wind shifts suddenly around May next year?
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Blockchainiac
· 9h ago
The market's expectation gap regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership change, this idea is still somewhat interesting. But will they really be able to fully withdraw by April 2026? It feels like there are quite a few uncertainties.
I have recently been considering a cross-year strategic plan.
According to the usual rhythm, the Federal Reserve Chair change in May next year could become a market turning point—new officials typically bring policy adjustment expectations, and historically, this time window often involves liquidity changes. Considering the current political climate, the successor is likely to favor a more dovish stance, which might coincide with the high point of market sentiment at the end of the cycle.
My own approach is as follows:
Wait until the Bank of Japan implements the interest rate hike this month (this is almost certain), then gradually enter positions in BTC, ETH, and some leading platform's main tokens. Afterwards, every time there is a pullback, add to the positions. The holding method can be pure spot or slightly leverage up to 2x— but never overdo it.
The target exit time is around April 2026, just before that veteran officially hands over. No matter how high prices go by then, it’s best to lock in profits first.
The core of this logic is betting on the expected difference brought by macro narrative shifts. Of course, plans are one thing, and actual operations depend on market conditions.