#美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 “Will the Federal Reserve’s 2026 Meeting Be a Big Pump-and-Dump? What Does the Dot Plot Say?”

Recently, the Federal Reserve’s dot plot has been released, and the market is dreaming again—expecting two more rate cuts by 2026, another one in 2027, and only by 2028 will interest rates return to normal levels. Sounds good? In reality, this directly signals the “big pump-and-dump” plan is bankrupt. Those who hope that policy stimulus will boost asset prices will have to give up now.

Regarding the Fed’s $400 billion Treasury bond purchase plan, many equate it with “market rescue”—but that’s a misunderstanding.

This money is part of the RMP tool, not an active stimulus. The real situation is: by the end of the year, banks face mounting pressures from fund reallocations, taxes, and corporate settlements, leading to tight liquidity. This operation is purely “stopping the bleeding,” a passive stabilization. It’s entirely different from QE, which aggressively expands the balance sheet.

To illustrate clearly: QE is actively pouring water into the cup; QT is using a siphon to drain it; RMP is simply tidying up the spilled water—patching leaks without adding new water.

The Fed’s ideal plan is to keep risk subdued through RMP. According to the schedule, RMP will remain in tightening mode until April 2026, because at that time, fiscal authorities need to raise taxes to prepare funds. After April, fiscal pressure will ease somewhat, and Treasury purchases may continue to decrease.

But don’t be fooled by appearances—what truly determines liquidity movement is never decided solely by RMP. Will the SLR be relaxed? Will banks dare to expand their balance sheets? Are fiscal subsidies in place? Will the Fed change the rules for ON RRP? These are the key variables.

Next, we need to closely watch two time points: the mid-December non-farm employment report (November data will come earlier). This data is unlikely to look good—government shutdown impacts are real; even more critical is the January CPI. If, after the October rate cut, CPI doesn’t show a clear decline, the Fed might directly start shrinking its balance sheet.

Honestly: the current market environment is far from optimistic. Will the Fed pump in 2026? If this script continues, don’t count on it.