Imagine this scene: Federal Reserve Chair Powell publicly admits at the press conference — US employment data was overestimated, with an upward revision of 60,000 jobs per month.

This is not a joke. The most talked-about point at the recently concluded December FOMC meeting was this. On the surface, everything seemed calm: a 25 basis point rate cut and an early start to the balance sheet expansion. But a closer look reveals underlying currents in the labor market, and market sentiment instantly shifted from hawkish to dovish euphoria.

Meeting Highlights: Rate cuts steady, new tricks in balance sheet expansion

At this FOMC (December 9-10), the federal funds rate was lowered to 3.50%-3.75%, in line with expectations. Three consecutive 25 basis point cuts indicate the Fed still has some confidence in a soft landing for the economy. But the statement added, "Further adjustments will depend on data," implying higher thresholds — don’t expect easy money anytime soon.

What’s even more surprising is the expansion of the balance sheet:

Starting today (December 12), the Fed launched the "Reserve Management Treasury Purchase" plan, initially buying $40 billion worth of short-term government bonds. This came several weeks earlier than market expectations, aiming to stabilize bank liquidity and prevent reserve fluctuations from causing trouble. Goldman Sachs analysts bluntly said this is not just defensive but also subtly paving the way for easing.

What about inflation and growth forecasts? The dot plot shows little change: 2025 GDP growth at 1.8%, unemployment rate at 4.5%, and inflation nudging up to 2.3%. Powell emphasized that tariffs will push up goods prices, but core services inflation is easing.

Sounds pretty steady? But the real