Honestly, lately watching the market has been really tiring.

Bitcoin nearly broke 90,000 this morning, now it's hovering around 93,000, with a 1% gain in 24 hours—essentially unchanged. Ethereum is even worse, dropping 2% to $3,259, completely giving back the small gains from a few days ago. The end-of-year market looks chaotic, but grabbing opportunities isn't that difficult—keyly depends on three things.

**First, let's talk about the Federal Reserve.** They’re about to hold a rate decision next week. The market is pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut, but Japan might raise interest rates again. If Yen funds withdraw, crypto volatility will definitely spike. More troublesome is that AI stocks have been falling recently, and Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks has risen to 0.7. If the tech sector cools off, how well can crypto perform? Some banks have even cut their year-end target to 100,000, and institutions are worried about tightening liquidity. Retail investors should be even more cautious.

**Next is the technical upgrades.** Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade on December 3rd is indeed powerful—block capacity jumped from 36 million to 60 million, Layer 2 can process over 100,000 transactions per second, and fees have decreased. In the long term, institutional entry is inevitable. Also, Solana’s SIMD-0411 proposal, though reducing staking yields, lowers selling pressure and can stabilize inflation. High risk-tolerant investors might want to pay attention.

**Finally, look at ETF fund flows.** A major institution’s Bitcoin ETF saw over $10 million outflow in a single day a few days ago, but other institutions are still accumulating. Currently, ETFs hold about 13,600 BTC, nearly 7% of the total supply, indicating long-term institutional recognition. If prices drop sharply, it might actually be a good chance to buy the dip.

**In summary:** the end of the year is a tug-of-war between "external policy swings + internal technological support." In the short term, don’t expect big rises or falls in Bitcoin; wait for the Fed’s statement. The benefits of Ethereum’s upgrade can be held long-term. Also, assets like XRP and Chainlink, which are more resilient, can be balanced to reduce risk. Now is not the time to play with leverage—focus on fundamentals.