2025-12-12 05:26:33

The Federal Reserve recently revealed an interesting signal — Powell views a "surge in productivity" as the key to breaking the deadlock. With inflation still lingering at high levels and employment data not looking good, the central bank only plans to cut interest rates once next year, and the confidence here comes from that.

The logic is quite straightforward: improved worker efficiency naturally reduces unit production costs, allowing wages to rise without pushing up prices. Policymakers have already adjusted the 2026 GDP forecast to 2.3%, and inflation expectations have been revised downward; when all is calculated, productivity at least contributes half of that.

Powell specifically emphasized that it’s not all due to AI, but everyone can see that the computing power revolution is accelerating.

However, the market is obviously not as optimistic. Productivity is inherently hard to predict — what if AI dividends only flow to a few tech giants? Even more concerning is that efficiency gains often come with layoffs, leading to soaring unemployment rates, and who will bear the social costs?

There’s also a more hidden contradiction: if productivity continues to rise, the neutral interest rate (r-star) will also need to be adjusted upward. The current policy stance might become overly accommodative. Powell himself admitted quite frankly — "other conditions are not unchanged."

The market is now choosing to believe this narrative, but if productivity expectations fall short by 2026, combined with liquidity tightening and growth stalling, that will be a real stress test. For the crypto market, every move by the Fed directly impacts liquidity, and the outcome of this high-stakes gamble might come faster than expected.

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BearMarketSurvivor

· 2025-12-13 22:12

The idea of productivity... to put it simply, it’s the Federal Reserve gambling, betting that AI can save the situation. The problem is, every time central banks have been this confident historically, it’s often a sign of the greatest danger. Position management first, don’t be blinded by interest rate cut expectations. This time is different. The AI dividend truly flows to those few giants, and retail investors will have to absorb the unemployment wave. When crypto liquidity tightens, that will be the real stress test. The answer will be revealed in 2026. Powell’s words sound good, but the phrase “other conditions are not unchanged”... actually is a backup plan for himself. Can the market not see through this? Efficiency improvements accompanied by layoffs—everyone understands this logic. But when unemployment soars, liquidity risks will become apparent. The current easing policy may instead become a ticking time bomb. Don’t overestimate productivity data; it’s too easy to manipulate. I’ve seen too many cases over the years where central banks’ confidence ended in a crash. The probability of that happening again is quite high this time.

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GlueGuy

· 2025-12-12 05:56

Productivity surge? Just forget about it; all the dividends have been taken by tech giants. The wave of AI layoffs is really coming. Can unemployment rise while inflation still falls? Bro Baotian is playing some tricky games. The probability that productivity expectations in 2026 will fall short is actually quite high. That's when the real crash market will happen. When liquidity tightens, the crypto market will explode directly, no suspense. Betting on productivity, in plain words, is betting that AI can keep itself alive indefinitely, but reality is often more harsh.

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SmartMoneyWallet

· 2025-12-12 05:56

The rhetoric of productivity... frankly, it's just a way to keep the loose policy alive. It's a nice-sounding story, with a 2.3% GDP forecast, but on-chain liquidity data has already told the truth. Big whales have long since adjusted their chip distribution before 2026. AI dividends are only flowing to tech giants, and an unemployment wave is coming—this is not just "possible," but already happening. Is the Federal Reserve pretending not to know? The logic of raising neutral interest rates—Powell himself said "other conditions are not unchanged," meaning: don’t believe this story of mine. The capital situation will really collapse before 2026, and by then, it will be too late to regret.

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MEV_Whisperer

· 2025-12-12 05:54

The story of productivity is told very skillfully, but I just can't quite believe it... Can the AI dividend really be evenly distributed? --- Powell's move is betting on productivity, but what if he's wrong? We'll see the answer in 2026. --- Honestly, increased efficiency = a wave of layoffs. Everyone understands this logic, and societal pressure is mounting. --- Should neutral interest rates be raised accordingly? Then the current easing policy might become a ticking time bomb... --- The Federal Reserve's narrative is pretty, but it can't withstand a market correction that causes everything to collapse. --- AI contributing half of GDP growth? Just hear it out. It won't really happen until the Year of the Monkey or later. --- Tightening liquidity + slowing growth, by then, the crypto market probably will need to be reshuffled. --- The difficulty in measuring productivity is real; even Powell isn't confident. --- Tech giants monopolizing the market, but underlying this is soaring unemployment. How can this balance be achieved?

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NotSatoshi

· 2025-12-12 05:51

The idea of productivity sounds very appealing, but essentially it's betting that AI can save the economy. AI dividends have been fully absorbed by tech giants, while the underlying workers still face unemployment—how is this calculation made? Is Powell just making big promises, or does he really have confidence? We'll know by 2026. When liquidity tightens, the crypto market is directly doomed; no one can escape. Instead of waiting for interest rate cuts, it's better to plan how to survive next year. A surge in productivity? I think it's more like disguised layoffs. If the market believes this story, then I'll operate in the opposite direction.

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