#数字资产生态回暖 BTC midday trading notes | Mid-December fluctuation pattern

This recent market movement has been quite interesting. The Federal Reserve's rate cut has been implemented, but the market's reaction isn't what you might expect—rate cuts didn't lead to a sustained rally; instead, they were knocked down by the hawkish rate hike signals from the Bank of Japan. $BTC From over 94,000, it sharply retreated, indicating that the 93,000-94,000 level is indeed a tough nut to crack.

The technical analysis also confirms this judgment. A top-divergence pattern has formed on the daily chart, the 4-hour MACD has confirmed a death cross, and the short-term upward momentum is clearly insufficient. On the downside, the 88,000-89,000 range is supported by multiple indicators, which feels like the last fortress for the bulls.

The fund flow situation is even more worth pondering—ETF capital inflow has clearly slowed down, the spot trading volume weighted indicator (CVD) has been oscillating in the negative zone, and the margin short liquidation ratio exceeds 85%. This indicates that the stop-loss pressure on the bulls has not been fully released, and there are still risks ahead.

To put it simply, the current stage is characterized by broad oscillation between 90,000 and 93,000. Until there's a clear breakout signal, be prepared for repeated tests of support.

**Trading ideas:**

Bearish perspective—lightly short in the 92,500-93,000 range, with a stop-loss above 93,500. (Once strong resistance is broken, adjust your strategy). Focus on the 91,000 low of yesterday; if it breaks, continue to watch the 90,000 level.

Bullish perspective—only attempt to long after successfully defending the 89,000-90,000 zone. Stop-loss must be tightly set at 88,500. (This is below the core support). Target the rebound space of 91,500-92,000, take profits when the opportunity arises, and avoid greed.

$ETH Follow the $BTC rhythm for now; the current market is also in a similar oscillating pattern. There’s no clear trend in the short term, so risk control is the top priority.