#美联储降息 Is the good news truly exhausted? Or is this the fog of the bull market?

The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, yet $BTC retreated from its high—Is this really institutions诱空or is the bear market really over?

My judgment is that we are now stuck in a broad stalemate period after the big plunge in the bear market. The most intense declines are probably over, but market sentiment hasn't returned yet. Fluctuations up and down are normal; essentially, we are still bottoming out.

Where's the problem? The rate cut is too "expected." Everyone has been betting on this anticipation in advance. Now that it has actually happened, it’s not as刺激as imagined—it's a typical case of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." What's more painful is that there's no unified thinking within the Federal Reserve. The dot plot clearly shows they are quite保守about rate cuts in 2026, directly破坏the market's幻想about long-term easing.

Looking at balance sheet expansion, the scale is explicitly limited to maintaining sufficient reserve levels in the banking system. In plain English, it's "limited liquidity injections." Relying on new liquidity to move the market in the short term? Difficult.

The most critical variable is personnel changes. The Federal Reserve's senior officials可能换血next year, which means there is明显的不确定性about the interest rate trend in 2026. The more复杂the signals, the slower the market confidence恢复.

Here's a sincere piece of advice: don't try to precisely predict the impact of each macro event; that's essentially gambling. Policy interpretations and actual market reactions always have time lags and预期差. Instead of纠结每条新闻, it’s better to focus on识别市场的真实趋势—once the大方向is确定, the执行的确定性far exceeds猜测政策意图.