#美联储降息 Stop dreaming about a big liquidity flood in 2026

The Federal Reserve's latest dot plot has been unveiled: there may be two rate cuts next year, another one in 2027, and true normalization of interest rates might not happen until 2028. In plain terms, the market’s story of 'the Fed opening the floodgates' needs to be rewritten. This recent expectation has already been challenged by reality, so those hoping for large-scale liquidity easing might want to consider a different approach.

But the more painful truth is coming—many people misunderstand the Fed’s purchase of $400 billion in government bonds. You think this is QE (quantitative easing)? Wrong, this is RMP (repurchase operations), which is entirely different in nature.

QE is like opening a floodgate into a swimming pool, QT is pumping water out, and RMP is like accidentally splashing water out—you use a bucket to scoop it back temporarily in an emergency, then return it. Simply put: **RMP is a technical stopgap, not a sign of a new round of easing.**

To judge the true direction of liquidity, look at these indicators: Will the SLR be adjusted? Will banks dare to expand their balance sheets? Are fiscal subsidies keeping pace? Is there any loosening in the overnight repo rate rules? These are the real market signals.

Next, focus on two data points: the December non-farm payrolls (especially since the impact of the November government shutdown is still present, so the data might be weak); and the January CPI—if inflation doesn’t decline as expected after the October rate cut, the Fed is likely to continue tightening.

Honestly, the current market environment is not ideal. Will 2026 bring that long-awaited liquidity flood? Based on current policy paths, it seems more like wishful thinking.

**Understanding the essence of policy is key to seeing through market trends.** Instead of blindly following the crowd, it’s better to focus on tracking these real policy signals, which will bring you closer to the true market expectations.