The market has not yet fully digested the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, and an unseen battle over the interest rate trend in 2026 has already begun between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street.

The focus is clear—will there be one or two rate cuts?

The Fed's official dot plot is cautious, indicating only one rate cut in 2026, with each cut by 25 basis points. But Wall Street doesn't see it that way. Major mainstream banks are collectively taking the opposite stance, insisting that there will be two cuts in 2026, totaling 50 basis points. Even more aggressive investment banks are issuing warnings: do not rule out the possibility of no cuts at all.

This is far more than just numerical disagreement.

The Fed's "dovish" stance aims primarily to manage expectations to maintain policy space and prevent a resurgence of inflation. Wall Street's confidence stems from their belief in economic models—they see mounting growth pressures and believe the Fed will be forced to accelerate rate cuts sooner or later.

What does this disagreement mean for the market? Volatility is certainly inevitable. Whenever employment or inflation data are released, the market will reprice the rate cut path for 2026, causing stock markets, bond markets, and forex markets to shake accordingly. For those holding crypto assets, there's an interesting opportunity—if economic data indeed weaken, Wall Street's expectations for "faster rate cuts" will gain the upper hand, and the expectation of loose dollar liquidity will be reinforced. This shift in expectations could very well become a key story driving Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to continue rising in 2026.

The ultimate determinant of victory or defeat will not be who speaks more convincingly, but the upcoming economic data. Growth, employment, inflation—each subtle change in these three indicators influences the balance of this game. Historical experience tells us that market consensus often leads policy. This time, who will bet right?