Last week, a big whale bet over $33 million on ETH, betting that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates. And what happened? The rate cut did indeed happen, but within 24 hours, 100,000 traders were liquidated, with total losses surpassing $200 million. That trader’s position is now also floating in loss.

At first glance, these are just cold numbers, but the underlying logic is the most heartbreaking part.

How do retail investors think? Very straightforward: "Rate cut news comes out → This is definitely good → Hurry and buy." How do institutions operate? Completely reverse thinking: "Expectations of a rate cut appear → I start buying up positions → Wait for the official announcement → Immediately sell to retail investors." This is what people often say: "Buy the rumor, sell the fact."

Where’s the problem? A rate cut doesn’t necessarily lead to a rise, and a rate hike doesn’t necessarily lead to a fall. The market always leads you by half a step. Those 100,000 liquidations aren’t because they misjudged the Fed’s policy; it’s because they didn’t realize that the market had already digested the rate cut signal long ago. Information asymmetry, the time gap, is a sword.

Right now, tokens like SOL are starting to stir again. The next key event is the meeting on December 18th. Don’t get dazzled by the current涨跌; the crypto world’s game is never about the event itself, but about people’s expectations of the event. If you want to make a quick profit in this wave, remember one word: wait. Wait for expectations to fully materialize, wait for the main players’ intentions to be exposed, then place your big bets with confidence.