Japan's December 19 interest rate hike decision has sparked quite a bit of discussion, with some worried that a large-scale withdrawal of arbitrage funds could trigger a financial storm. But if you look closely at this logic, there are still many flaws.

From a timeline perspective, Japan's rate hike pace is actually not urgent at all. The rate hike cycle began in 2024, and by January 2025, four operations have been completed, with interest rates gradually rising from -0.1% to 0.5%. This process has been very prolonged. If funds seeking interest rate differentials truly want to exit, they have had plenty of opportunities over these two years. Why wait until this specific point in time to collectively flee? From an operational logic standpoint, that doesn't make sense.

Looking at the scale of funds, roughly estimating, these arbitrage funds amount to about $20 trillion. In the context of the entire global financial system, this amount is relatively limited. To say that it could single-handedly trigger systemic risk is an overstatement.

In this era of information explosion, various voices about financial markets are flying around every day. The more important the topic related to the economy and markets, the more you need to verify the data yourself—don't just follow the crowd blindly. More verification and less herd mentality will help you navigate the market more clearly.