The US trade deficit continued to shrink in September, decreasing to $52.8 billion month-on-month. The revised data for the previous month was $59.3 billion. What does this decline indicate? Seeing such levels in recent years is uncommon; since 2020, it has hardly occurred.

On the export side, it appears to be growing, with a 3% month-on-month increase in September and an additional $8.4 billion in exports. However, there's a detail—nearly 70% of this increase comes from "non-monetary gold" exports. Cross-border gold flows are indeed included in trade statistics, but they reflect asset reallocation between countries and do not equate to a real increase in manufacturing capacity. Excluding gold, the actual export growth rate for the US is quite moderate.

The import side provides a clearer picture, with only a 0.6% increase, essentially remaining steady. Why is this the case? The answer lies in the "front-loading procurement effect" correction. At the beginning of the year, companies rushed to place orders in anticipation of expected changes in trade policies (such as new tariffs), leading to inventory buildup. By September, this stockpiling trend had passed, and companies began to digest inventories, naturally reducing the frequency of new orders.

The September data itself has some peculiarities; it will require several more months of observation to confirm the trend. However, if the US trade deficit indeed continues to narrow persistently, it will reshape the global trade landscape—such structural change may have a deeper impact than the fluctuations caused by bilateral tariffs and trade imbalances over the past year.