#数字资产生态回暖 $ETH

ETH's latest shakeout: where is the bottom, and where is it headed next?

Falling from the high of 3446.12 in early December, Ethereum is now stuck at 3235.50, down 0.17% intraday. It looks inactive, but over the past three days, during the 3142-3250 range, trading volume has actually increased — this isn’t calm, but funds searching for the bottom.

The technical signals are already clear.

Starting with moving averages: the 7-day moving average at 3244.94 is pressing above the 30-day at 3217.20, indicating no sign of a trend reversal in the short term. The current price close to the 7-day MA suggests that the 3245 resistance is still being tested, but 3217 is a significant support level.

The Bollinger Bands are even more interesting — upper band at 3276.61, lower band at 3187.29. The current price is right near the middle band. This is a typical accumulation phase: breaking above the upper band could accelerate upward movement, as long as it doesn’t fall below the lower band, which would mean distribution has begun.

The MACD has already signaled a bullish trend. The DIF line crossing above the DEA line forms a golden cross, with the red histogram continuing to lengthen. This indicates that the momentum of the decline is almost exhausted, and the rebound power is building up.

Three key levels to watch moving forward:

From a technical perspective, holding the 3200 integer mark is crucial for ETH. If it can stay above this level, the 3276 resistance above should be testable. Even if it retraces after testing, as long as the lower band at 3187 isn’t broken, it’s a consolidation, not distribution.

What’s the worst-case scenario? If it breaks below 3187, then the previous low at 3142 needs to be re-evaluated. But at that point, don’t rush to sell; instead, consider accumulating in batches because this is the real accumulation phase.

The market logic is simple: follow the technical signals to take profits, and guessing blindly will always lead to hunger. The rhythm of ETH in this wave can be understood within a week.