#数字资产生态回暖 Recently, there has been widespread speculation about Japan's interest rate hike expectations on December 19th. People say the arbitrage army is about to retreat, and the financial world is about to shake. I carefully analyzed the data and realized that the situation is not as exaggerated as it seems.

In fact, Japan has been adjusting its policies since 2024, with interest rates rising steadily from -0.1%, to 0.25%, and then to 0.5% in January. This is already the fourth rate hike. But on the other hand, even after multiple hikes, the 0.5% rate still remains at the bottom globally. The key point is — this rate hike cycle has lasted more than two years, and the true arbitrage funds should have already exited. Why are they only now making moves?

Various analysts' data are also quite calm. Even if there is some capital outflow, it’s probably around 2 trillion. In the context of the global financial scale, this amount of funds cannot stir up big waves. Many people jump to wild guesses just based on rumors, as if they haven't fully understood the situation before betting. Instead of being led by rumors, it’s better to put in some effort to verify data yourself and understand market logic. This is especially true in the crypto trading circle, which tests your eyesight — you need hard data to speak for itself.