Why 2025 Was Never the Bull Market And Why 2026 Looks Different

Source: ETHNews Original Title: Why 2025 Was Never the Bull Market And Why 2026 Looks Different Original Link: According to crypto trader Ran Neuner, 2025 was widely expected to be the post-halving bull market year, but price action never confirmed that assumption.

Instead of behaving like a true cycle expansion, major assets struggled to gain traction – Bitcoin and Ethereum stalled – Solana collapsed.

That disconnect led Neuner to step back and reassess the situation by breaking down macro conditions, liquidity models, and past market cycles. What he found challenges the core expectation that 2025 was ever set up to deliver a real bull market.

The Key Driver That Was Missing

Neuner’s conclusion is straightforward: 2025 never had the conditions that start a bull market. The most important factor was absent: global net liquidity.

This is not headline M2, but the liquidity that actually reaches financial markets. When Neuner examined this data, the explanation for 2025’s underwhelming performance became clear.

Throughout the year, net liquidity continued to fall. Purchasing managers’ data remained in contraction. Quantitative tightening was still draining liquidity from the system. Economic expansion never truly began.

That combination, Neuner argues, is not a bull market environment. It explains why 2025 felt confusing, strong narratives existed, but there was no fuel behind them.

What the Chart Shows

The chart highlights the relationship between Bitcoin’s long-term price action and global liquidity conditions. Periods of expansion align with rising liquidity, while phases marked by liquidity contraction correspond with stalled price action and corrective behavior.

In the most recent section of the chart, liquidity is still shown declining, with a clear indication that expansion has not yet started. Bitcoin’s behavior during this phase reflects that backdrop, failing to transition into a sustained bull cycle despite post-halving expectations.

The message from the chart is consistent: without rising liquidity, bull markets do not form.

Why Neuner Is Looking at 2026

Neuner’s breakdown suggests that 2026 is the first time in years where the conditions that do start bull markets are beginning to appear. Quantitative tightening has ended, rates are heading lower, Treasury-related pressure has eased, and global net liquidity is bottoming.

At the same time, PMI data is turning up, institutions are preparing for a second wave of inflows, and regulatory clarity is finally arriving.

Historically, Neuner notes, Bitcoin has never entered a bear market while liquidity is rising. That observation reframes the entire cycle discussion.

Reframing the Cycle

From Neuner’s perspective, 2025 didn’t fail – it was simply the wrong year to expect a cycle. The structural conditions were never there.

If liquidity expansion is now beginning, the implication is clear: the real bull market may not have started yet.

And if history rhymes, 2026, not 2025, could be the year when the true cycle finally begins.