I particularly dislike comments that come out of nowhere, so I always prefer to shut people up with data. Over the past few years, Japan has raised interest rates three times, so let's take a good look at what the data actually shows.

The first time was on March 19, 2024—on the day of the US stock market's SP500 jump from 17,900 to 18,036, and the Nasdaq from 12,480 to 12,554. Meanwhile, BTC actually fell from 67,707 to 61,876. The second rate hike was on July 31, when SP500 rose from 5,503 to 5,523, and the Nasdaq from 19,229 to 19,350, but BTC continued downward, dropping from 66,207 to 64,209. The third was on January 24 of this year—this time the opposite happened—SP500 fell from 6,119 to 6,098, the Nasdaq from 21,977 to 21,758, and BTC actually rose from 103,815 to 104,76.

With these three data points, the first two times US stocks went up while BTC went down, and the third time, the situation was reversed. This is what we call a 50/50 scenario. For those who keep saying that the market will crash after rate hikes, check out the K-line chart of Bitcoin in March 2024—there's barely any turbulence.

Ultimately, trying to find market rules based on a single event or indicator is basically wishful thinking. The market is always unpredictable—don't even try to forecast it.