#美联储降息 The Federal Reserve Officials’ Diverging Stances: What Is the Path of Rate Cuts?

Recently, there was internal conflict at the Federal Reserve meeting. Three voting members opposed the decision, highlighting significant differences in stance that drew market attention.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee took a firm stance: initiating a rate cut cycle now is too premature. His logic is straightforward—inflation has not reached the 2% target for four and a half years, and public complaints about prices remain high. Reckless rate cuts would only add fuel to the fire.

In contrast, Philadelphia Fed President Posen's concerns are entirely different. He is more worried about whether the labor market can hold up. After a 75 basis point cut last year, he characterized this policy as "risk hedging," implying it was to prevent the worst-case scenario of a surge in unemployment.

One fears inflation might flare up again, while the other worries about worsening employment data. These opposing viewpoints are causing internal fractures within the Fed.

**What does this mean for crypto assets?**

The wavering expectations of rate cuts actually open up new possibilities for the market. Whenever policy signals become ambiguous, risk assets tend to fluctuate. When macro data shows volatility, safe-haven flows are activated—beyond stocks and bonds, non-correlated assets like Bitcoin become alternative destinations for funds. The more hawkish the Fed’s stance in the short term, the easier it is for market anxiety to be amplified.

**Practical operational suggestions:**

First, be cautious of noise from the news. Hot topics spread rapidly, which can tempt investors to chase gains or cut losses prematurely, only to be shaken out by major players.

Second, sharp declines can be opportunities for building positions. Invest gradually, focusing on core assets with unchanged fundamentals. Top cryptocurrencies like $ETH are especially attractive amid volatility.

Third, keep enough ammunition. The real major trend may not be clear until next year when policy directions settle. Acting prematurely might cause you to miss better entry points.

Is this end-of-year rally a bottom accumulation or a trap for a top? Behind the Fed’s policy disagreements lies the next turning point for the market.