To achieve stable profits in the cryptocurrency market, I want to share a relatively systematic methodology. These ideas come from years of market observation and practical experience, with the core logic being: a combination of technical analysis + capital flow + mindset management.

**Signals for Identifying Strong Coins**

When the overall market experiences a significant decline, if your held coins only undergo minor pullbacks, this often indicates that there is capital backing the price. Such coins are worth holding because the supporting funds usually hint at a bigger plan. Conversely, if the market doesn't drop much but your coins fall sharply, you should be alert.

**Two Key Lines for Beginners**

For newcomers to trading, complex indicators are unnecessary. For short-term trading, focus on the 5-day moving average: hold when the price is above it, sell if it breaks below. For mid-term, look at the 20-day moving average, applying the same logic. It seems simple, but execution is the real challenge. Stick to the rules; often, consistent adherence yields better results than frequent adjustments.

**Timing for Buying in the Main Upward Wave**

When a coin's upward trend has been established, and there is no obvious increase in trading volume but a gentle rise, this is the ideal window for entry. Continue holding until volume begins to surge. Even if later the price drops with decreasing volume, as long as the trend line remains unbroken, hold on. Only when volume expands and the price breaks below the support line should you reduce your holdings.

**Two Short-Term Disciplines**

If after buying, there is no significant movement within three days, and the trend is unclear, sell if possible. This avoids funds being locked in coins without direction for too long. Another strict rule is setting a 5% stop-loss: once losses reach this level, exit immediately without argument. Psychological comfort is a major enemy of trading; discipline is the safeguard.

**Opportunities for Oversold Rebounds**

If a coin drops more than 50% from its high and has fallen for eight consecutive days, this usually indicates that selling pressure has been fully released. A rebound could happen at any time. You can try a small position to test the waters, but be prepared for another decline. Oversold does not equal bottom; it merely indicates that the risk might have been sufficiently released.

**The Correct Approach to Leading Coins**

Leading coins are called so because they rise fiercely and resist declines best. Many make the mistake of wanting to buy more as the price drops, but the correct perspective is the opposite—look not at the magnitude of the drop but at the relative strength. The key to buying leading coins is to dare to buy at relatively high levels and sell at even higher levels. Chasing the lowest prices often causes you to miss the strongest upward phase.

**Follow the Trend, Not Guess the Bottom**

The essence of trading is to follow the trend, not to predict the bottom. The buy-in price isn't about being at an absolute low but being relatively appropriate. When a downtrend is still ongoing, do not rashly declare the bottom has arrived. If certain coins perform significantly weaker than the market, decisively abandon them—don't expect them to rebound. Correct trend judgment is the main point; everything else is detail.

**Distinguishing Luck from Skill**

Many people think they are experts after a single big profit, but the key is whether they can repeat this success. Regularly review your trading records and ask yourself: was this gain because the trend was favorable and I just happened to be in the right place, or because my judgment was accurate? Consistent profitability is the true measure of skill. Building a stable system that suits your trading style is more valuable than a one-time high return.

**Holding Cash Is Also a Trading Strategy**

Not always should you be fully invested. When confidence is lacking, holding cash and waiting is wiser than forcing trades. The priority in trading should be: first protect the capital, then consider profit. It’s not about trading frequency but success rate per trade. Achieving five successful trades in a month is far better than making fifty trades with wins and losses mixed.

The common point of this methodology is discipline and patience. The market is always there, opportunities are always present, no need to rush.