#美联储降息 Can Bitcoin go up further?

Speaking of which, that wave of market activity in October was really intense. Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $126,000, feeling like it was about to break through the sky.

Now? It’s stuck around $90,000, which seems like a signal that a bear market is knocking on the door. Do you guys feel it too?

The "Four-Year Halving Cycle" logic is still in effect, but the gameplay has indeed changed. The peak after this halving arrived as expected, but the way it declines is a bit different—institutions' spot ETFs and large holders' chips are in play, so the bottom probably won't be as bloodied as before. Conservatively estimating, the $30,000 to $60,000 range will serve as support.

The problem lies with the U.S. Treasury. Large amounts of idle capital are effectively siphoning liquidity into the crypto pool, with high-volatility assets like Bitcoin being the first to feel the impact.

From a candlestick perspective, Bitcoin has already broken below important moving averages—this is a textbook signal of a bear market beginning. On-chain data is even more straightforward: big players are fleeing, retail investors are buying the dip, old routines are back. Although the fear index is already quite low, don’t rush to pick up bargains at this point; the true bottom usually appears only when panic has fully spread.

In this 2026 bear market, institutions will be the main players, engaging in a game of counterparty battles.

Retail investors wanting to survive? They need to change their mindset—stay away from leverage; futures contracts in a bear market are basically suicide machines. If the price really drops below $40,000, you can build positions gradually, but make sure to keep some bullets; never go all in.

Next year's market rhythm will be driven by two things: U.S. PMI data and Federal Reserve actions.

I’ve experienced the darkest moments in the crypto world and also seen the moments of takeoff. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin’s bottom is constantly rising, so it’s worth waiting for the long term. But in the short term, don’t fight the market—bear markets are about not losing money. Protect your cash reserves, resist the urge to panic, and by the second half of 2026, it might just be the critical time for wealth redistribution.