Many people are waiting for a major policy shift, but what they hear is "interest rates will remain at a relatively high level." But this is not a reason to fall silent — historical experience tells us that when most people are looking in one direction, the real opportunities often hide in overlooked corners.

**The term "liquidity injection" in policies needs to be revised**

Currently, the discussion in the capital markets about an "expansion of the balance sheet" by 40 billion is essentially called the Reserve Maintenance Plan (RMP). In simple terms, it means the central bank detects that water levels are approaching a critical point and quickly patches the leaks, rather than opening a new water pipe. This is fundamentally different from real Quantitative Easing (QE) — QE involves proactively releasing liquidity on a large scale, while RMP is just patching and maintaining the status quo.

Key reminder: Don't place too much hope on this "defensive operation." It is only aimed at preventing liquidity crises in the financial system by the end of the year and is far from enough to push up the crypto market.

**Four key switches to truly control liquidity**

If you only focus on central bank actions, you'll miss deeper variables:

Supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) easing → directly affects whether banks dare to lend; Banks' own willingness to expand their balance sheets → determines the speed at which funds flow into the market; Treasury funds dispatch → whether the treasury account is "absorbing funds" or "releasing funds"; Overnight reverse repurchase (ON RRP) scale → reflects remaining market liquidity.

What is the current situation? Banks are still holding tight to their money bags, the Ministry of Finance is issuing bonds to raise funds, and the overnight RRP balance has fallen from a peak of 2.5 trillion to 400 billion — the market's "grain reserves" are running out. This is the key factor for whether the crypto market can break through in the short term.