Bull Markets Last Forever? Let's Hear What Bitcoin Has to Say

Bitcoin's recent market movements have been a roller coaster. In October, it surged to $126,000 in one go, making the entire crypto community feel energized. But it didn't take long before the price shrank back to around $90,000, and the momentum is gradually dissipating, with the shadow of a bear market becoming clearer.

One thing to clarify — Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle rule hasn't been broken; only the pattern has changed. After this halving, the expected peak still arrived on schedule, but the circumstances are different now. In the past, bear markets were devastating, but now it's different. Institutional ETFs are providing support, large investors are shifting positions, and the safety net at the bottom has become much thicker. Industry insiders generally estimate that even if prices fall, they probably won't go below bottom levels, likely staying within the $30,000 to $60,000 range.

But here's the problem. In the US, funds are being held tightly and not invested in the market — in plain terms, they're flooding the crypto pool. High-volatility assets like Bitcoin are the first to be impacted.

From a technical perspective, the moving averages have been broken — a classic bear market signal. On-chain data also tells a story — whales are running, retail investors are buying the dip, and this old trick is playing out again. The Fear & Greed Index is at the bottom, but at this point, don't rush to buy the dip. The true bottom often appears when panic is at its peak.

The outlook for 2026 is likely to be this: institutions will become the main players, continuously taking from each other. Retail investors need to change their approach — stay away from leverage; trading futures in a bear market is just asking for trouble. If the price really drops below $40,000, you can buy in stages, but always keep an exit plan — don't put all your eggs in one basket.

Keep an eye on US PMI and Federal Reserve policies, as they will be the indicators for next year's direction.

I've seen the darkest moments and the brightest moments in the crypto world. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin's bottom is gradually rising — this is a trend worth trusting. But in the short term, don't go head-to-head with the market; in a bear market, the goal is to lose as little as possible. Keep your cash ready, hold your nerve, and by the end of next year, it might be time for a wealth reshuffle.