#美联储降息 Internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the pace of rate cuts have intensified. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee cast a dissenting vote this week, with a straightforward reason — inflation risks are still too high, and whether tariffs have a temporary impact or signal a long-term trend on prices remains to be seen from the data. The government shutdown in October and November froze several key economic reports, making him more cautious about rash rate cuts in the near term.

Pauwels described the state of the labor market as "under pressure but not collapsing." She maintains that current monetary policy remains somewhat tight, although recent easing measures have provided some breathing room for employment.

The core disagreement between the two voting members centers on: if the economy is propelled into a high-growth mode by the AI productivity surge, how should policy be adjusted? Conversely, what if inflation persists stubbornly? This uncertainty is the real reason they remain cautious. Goolsbee still sees "significant room" for rate decreases next year, provided that the data give clear signals.