There is an unwritten rule when trading new coins, mastering it can really improve your win rate. The core logic is simple: as long as the contract is launched and the spot market hasn't come in yet, stick to small positions and go long; avoid blindly shorting.

Why does this approach work so well? There are several reasons worth pondering.

Historical data shows that many coins experience quite exaggerated gains during the pure contract phase, with increases of over 70% being common, and some even doubling or tripling. Even if there are one or two dips in the middle, many still rebound in the end. This is not a coincidence; it’s a common market rhythm.

Looking at the game theory aspect, what does it mean if there is no circulating spot? It significantly increases the difficulty of dumping the price. Large traders can push the price higher at a lower cost, while the more people short, the more intense the forced liquidation backlash becomes. In this zero-sum game, the pressure on short sellers keeps mounting.

Another overlooked detail is that initially pushing the contract price higher essentially sets a "price anchor" for the market. When the spot trading finally begins, this high price can attract follow-up buying, completing the entire logical chain.

When operating, keep these key points in mind: First, closely monitor the specific timing of the spot launch—this is the real risk trigger point; once the spot opens, a sharp drop can happen easily. Second, keep your positions lightweight and fixed; this is fundamentally a probability game, and going all-in is not an option. Third, don’t be fooled by the price movements in the first five minutes after opening; the depth is shallow, and volatility is too random, so it’s not very meaningful to reference.

In short, this strategy profits from probability—before the spot is officially launched, follow the main bullish trend and participate with reasonable small positions. When the spot time arrives, stay alert and cautious.