There is an old saying: "Buy gold in chaotic times, watch Crypto in crazy markets"—there's nothing wrong with that. But recently, a leading precious metals institution announced that "gold will surge to $4,488 per ounce by 2026," which seems to be just optimistic about gold. In fact, it's sending a signal to the entire risk asset market.

Let's clarify the logic first. Why dare to say that gold will hit a new high in two years? The core bets are twofold: the Federal Reserve's rate-cut cycle is about to begin, coupled with ongoing global instability. Currently, the Fed is indeed slowing down the pace of rate cuts, but by 2026, rate cuts are likely to become the norm. As the most classic safe-haven asset, gold will naturally benefit from this trend.

Looking at the crypto market, what does this imply? Historical comparisons make it clear—during the Fed's liquidity injection in 2020, gold surged from 1500 to 2000, and ETH skyrocketed from 100 to 4000 in the same period. Conversely, in 2022, as the Fed started raising interest rates, gold retreated to around 1600, and ETH dropped to 800. Essentially, gold and cryptocurrencies are on the same liquidity boat; the bullish outlook for gold is actually laying the groundwork for the medium- and long-term crypto market.

But there's a reality check. In the short term, the two are actually like a seesaw. When the Fed signaled a hawkish stance a few days ago, gold rose by 1.2%, while ETH fell by 3%—this is capital shifting into short-term safe-haven assets. However, once the Fed truly begins cutting rates, both gold and ETH will soar together, just like in 2021 when gold approached 2000 and crypto assets hit new highs. The key is to understand the long-term direction of liquidity and not be fooled by short-term fluctuations.