There is a saying in the market: "Buy the expectations, sell the facts." Recently, Brother Ma Jie vividly demonstrated this iron law with $33.08 million — he bet on the Fed cutting interest rates, and as a result, over 100,000 traders got liquidated within 24 hours, and more than $200 million in funds evaporated. His own millions also sank together.

Losses themselves are not the cruelest part. What's more ruthless is understanding the logic behind it.

Retail investors and institutions see the same thing, but their thoughts are completely different. Retail investors see "interest rate cuts coming," and rush in. Institutions have already been positioned during the anticipation phase of rate cuts; once the news comes out, they quickly dump their holdings onto retail investors. This gap is often the distance to account explosions.

Let’s review this market cycle. At the end of October, #以太坊行情技术解读 surged near 110,000, and the market started speculating on a "December rate cut expectation." When the expectation failed in November, BTC plummeted from 110,000 to 80,000. When the Fed actually announced a rate cut on December 11, retail investors thought the bottom was in, and frantically bought at 95,000. But 24 hours later, BTC continued to drop toward 89,000. Those who got liquidated were the retail investors caught holding the "facts."

Even more deadly was Powell’s follow-up move. The market initially expected another 2 to 3 rate cuts afterward, but he said that in 2026 there might only be one. The expectation was shattered instantly. The market continued to fall.

Retail investors get excited at the mention of "rate cuts," but institutions hear a different message—"Long-term liquidity is tightening." The same data, but two different visions of the future.

Actually, I warned of a bigger risk back in early December: the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. The liquidity released by the Fed’s rate cuts can't withstand the global central banks tightening simultaneously. If the Bank of Japan really starts raising rates on December 18, the crypto market will face a new wave of shocks. This isn’t a grand prediction, just the logical transmission between central bank policies.

In essence—when everyone in the market is shouting the same "positive news," that positive has already been priced in. The moment you rush in is often exactly when others are preparing to sell.

The next key date to watch is December 18—the Bank of Japan meeting. That’s the real embedded risk point in the market. I’m not just alarmist; the data and logic are right there.