The Federal Reserve's latest rate cut has been implemented, although officials remain tight-lipped about balance sheet expansion, the market is well aware. The next phase depends on Powell's final window before stepping down in June — policy signals during this period could determine the short-term direction.

The so-called "regulatory bull market" has yet to show signs of life. First, liquidity is indeed tight; second, key policies are still in the brewing stage. Will the new leadership change the game rules? That remains to be seen, and we can only wait and see how things unfold.

This bear market is fundamentally different from previous ones. The entry of large institutions and spot ETFs has changed the landscape — major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are supported by institutional funds, making a crash like the one in the past unlikely. But altcoins are not so fortunate; lacking funding support, their fate is sealed.

Whether the altcoin season can reoccur ultimately depends on whether the industry has real capabilities. Projects that only tell stories without solving real problems may eventually fade away. Conversely, those that can deliver practical applications and meet genuine needs have a better chance of survival.

Another external variable worth paying attention to is policy orientation shifts, which often amplify market expectations. These factors are constantly influencing investor confidence and capital flows.