The Bank of Japan may break the three-decade zero-interest rate deadlock on December 19. At this moment, the global markets are tense—especially the three major mainstream cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and BNB, which are facing a potential period of intense volatility.

The market has already tasted this kind of experience before. In July, when Japan raised interest rates, Bitcoin plummeted by 23%, with total liquidation reaching 20 billion. Although many are mentally prepared this time, those hidden leverage bombs are still ticking. Ethereum has become a major casualty—DeFi space is filled with leveraged lending positions; the 85,000 USD level for Bitcoin is a critical point of life and death; BNB appears relatively resilient but, once the market crashes, it will be difficult for it to remain unscathed.

Why is this risk so high this time? Ultimately, it’s the collapse of "Yen arbitrage trading." Over the years, global investors have been borrowing almost at zero cost in Japanese Yen and pumping the funds into US stocks and crypto assets that can generate profits. Once Japan enters an interest rate hike cycle, these cheap funds will have to exit, triggering a chain reaction that no one can avoid—the stock market, bond market, and crypto market will all come under pressure.

But don’t be too pessimistic; history doesn’t always repeat simply: This time, the market has already started digesting the expectations three months early, unlike the sudden attack in July; open interest in futures has decreased by 40% from its peak, some leverage risks have already been cleared out; the Fed’s rate cut expectations still persist, which can provide some buffer for the market.

What’s the practical approach? If you’re using leverage, reduce your multiple to below 3x, keep at least 150% margin, and never bet on the meeting’s outcome. Spot holders can set staggered stop-loss orders, with BTC reference points at 85,000 and 80,000. Those hoping to buy the dip should stay calm—if the market panic drops below 82,000 after the rate hike, consider buying in batches, but do so slowly and at multiple price levels.

Opportunities will always come, but the premise is to survive. What do you think about this Japanese rate hike—will it be the last dip, or the start of an even bigger crash?