Ethereum and Bitcoin investors need to pay attention as the global macro landscape is becoming more complex. The Federal Reserve has just finished cutting interest rates, and the Bank of Japan is about to raise rates — and according to several insiders, this might just be the beginning.

The mid-December central bank meeting is a done deal: the Bank of Japan will raise the benchmark interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. But what’s truly worth watching isn’t this move itself, but the subsequent actions. Internal officials have privately indicated that interest rates may need to rise further to above 0.75% to complete this cycle — in other words, they are leaving room for continued rate hikes.

The key lies in the concept of the "neutral interest rate." The central bank currently estimates the nominal neutral rate to be between 1% and 2.5%, with some officials even believing that 1% might not be enough. What does this mean? 0.75% is far from the end. Market surveys show the median forecast for the final rate could settle at 1.25% — meaning there will be at least two more rate hikes from now.

The rationale for rate hikes is also solid. Although adjustments have begun, the actual cost of borrowing remains deeply in negative territory because inflation has exceeded the 2% target for three consecutive years. This provides the central bank with a justification to continue raising rates.

BOJ Governor Ueda previously mentioned the possibility of releasing a neutral rate range, but internal views consider this metric difficult to predict precisely and not part of the rate hike roadmap. Instead, the central bank will emphasize a principle: carefully observing the impact of each rate hike on bank loans, corporate financing, and overall economic activity before deciding on the next step.

For the global crypto market, this is a signal that warrants caution — the policy directions of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are beginning to diverge subtly but importantly.