#美联储降息 $BTC Technical Review for December 13 Midday

【Short-term Trend Judgment】
Bitcoin broke through 90281 with increased volume and confirmed the move. A daily close above this level on the hourly chart is a bullish opportunity, with stop-loss set below. Conversely, if it drops below 90185 with volume and cannot rebound back, the trend shifts to bearish, and stop-loss planning should be in place. Pay special attention to changes in trading volume, as this determines whether the trend can continue.

【Bullish Target Setting】
Holding above 90427 on the hourly chart opens the way to the 91454-92686 range. However, it’s important to emphasize: if the rebound cannot break through 91454, the upward momentum is lost, and it’s likely just a correction rather than a reversal.

【Bearish Reference Strategy】
A fake breakout above 91537 (2B pattern) can be considered for short entry, but confirmation requires holding above 92727. Until then, there is a risk of being whipsawed. Conservative traders may wait for a pullback near 88028, with 87015 as the stop-loss lower limit.

【Key Support Analysis】
This decline tested the 89333 support five times (see chart markings). Each rebound weakened progressively—the first rebound was strongest, while the second, third, and fourth weakened step by step. Multiple tests of a support level thin the defense line, making a breakdown highly probable. If 89333 is truly broken, observe whether 88003 can hold as a deeper support.

【Rebound vs. Reversal Criteria】
Whether this rebound can break the neckline at 90596 is critical. Only a break of this level indicates a true rebound. But that’s not enough—only if the previous highs marked by the red arrows are surpassed and a new higher high is set can it be considered a reversal. Otherwise, it remains a technical rebound.

【Summary of Bullish and Bearish Pressures and Supports】
Upper resistance: 90596 → 91454 → 92686
Lower support: 90000 → 89333 → 88000

【4-Hour Level Reminder】
If 89427 breaks downward, look toward 88027-86385.

Core advice: Avoid chasing when strong candlesticks (large bullish or bearish candles) appear. Stop-loss placement is difficult and prone to whipsaws. It’s better to wait for clearer entry opportunities before taking action.