#加密生态动态追踪 $BTC $ETH $BNB

Japan’s recent rate hike has truly exposed a 30-year-old big secret!

First, the current situation: Japan’s inflation has skyrocketed, and the Yen is still depreciating. The central bank can no longer sit still. At the end of last year, they just brought negative interest rates to zero, and this year they’ve made two more moves, raising rates to 0.5%. The market unanimously predicts another 25 basis points in December, pushing it to 0.75%. The cabinet is on board with this direction, after all, ordinary people's wallets are nearly empty, and corporate profits are being wiped out by rising costs.

But this is a huge headache for the US. Wall Street has been running a Yen arbitrage business for 30 years—borrowing cheap Yen to buy US bonds and earn the interest rate differential—now it’s all coming to an end. When Japan raises rates, this arbitrage opportunity completely disappears. Even more severe is that Japan holds $1.2 trillion in US Treasuries. If they start dumping them, US bond yields will skyrocket; the two-year yield has already hit 3.5%, and the 10-year has broken 4.09%. The vicious cycle of bond sell-offs can’t stop.

The Trump administration is in a tight spot now. Previously, austerity measures backfired—deficits actually increased, reaching $1.8 trillion for fiscal year 2025. Now, with Japan’s “backstab,” how will they respond? Pressure Japan to stop rate hikes? Force the Fed to pause rate cuts? Or resort to trade protectionism to shift the crisis?

Some may say, isn’t this just a remake of 2008? Don’t worry. The economic fundamentals still have buffers, but this is definitely a major breach in the old financial order. Global funds are relocating, gold is being snapped up like crazy—can the crypto market absorb this wave of safe-haven capital? That’s the real question for the crypto world to ponder.

So, here’s the question: should mainstream coins buy the dip now? Or wait until the situation on this chessboard becomes clearer? Will Trump really pull out a trump card to save US debt?

Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts!