Polymarket just gave us a perfect case study of how “small edges” become a money printer.

An account called coffeemachine showed up about a month ago and is now sitting at roughly $84.6K all-time PnL with 5,800+ predictions and a ~58.7% win rate.

But the interesting part isn’t the win rate.

It’s the mechanic.

The bot hunts for markets where buying BOTH outcomes costs less than $1 (ex: Up + Down = $0.80).
That’s basically a micro-arbitrage / mispricing capture: you’re not “predicting”, you’re pricing.

Example setups from the screenshot:

👉 SOL 1:00–1:15: Up 61c + Down 19c = 80c → room for profit if you can size + exit clean

👉 SOL 12:45–1:00: Up 85c + Down 8c = 93c → smaller edge, same idea

Do that hundreds of times, and the curve starts looking like a cheat code.

The catch (always): this is execution warfare.

Fees, spread, low depth, partial fills, slippage, market voids, resolution quirks, platform limits… all of it can erase “guaranteed” edges fast.

So if you’re watching this and thinking “easy money”, remember: the edge is not the math.

The edge is speed + automation + risk control.

Follow @degensing for more.