I have conducted a tracking analysis using on-chain data and exchange withdrawal records. The chips withdrawn from exchanges account for approximately 30%-40% of the total supply. The average purchase cost is in the range of 0.03-0.04, with an investment of around $30 million. Currently, the on-paper value is about $100 million.

On-chain wallets that can be traced are even more interesting—the same source of funds (from a major exchange) is dispersed across roughly 70 wallet addresses. The first 16 early on, and about 50 later. These addresses bought up about 20% of the supply, with costs between 0.05-0.08, totaling about $9 million. Based on their trading time windows, these two groups of wallets operated at different times, making it hard not to suspect coordinated market manipulation.

Most importantly, I’ve been monitoring early wallets that accumulated spot holdings from zero on the chain. I check daily for signs of liquidation or small sell-offs to suppress prices. Besides these large wallet addresses that control around 50% of the supply, there are also several whale bots lurking on-chain, frequently conducting large trades. In total, these wallets have made over 100,000 large deposits and withdrawals on this coin.

My recommendation is to add the top 50 wallet addresses by holdings into your watchlist. Most of them are either the market makers themselves or major accounts with agreements with market makers. Monitoring their movements can roughly predict the next trend.

There’s a key logic to clarify: market makers holding over 50% of the chips don’t necessarily need to keep pushing prices up. They can also create declines to trap retail traders going long, and then reaccumulate the chips once the position is set. As long as they control the flow of chips, profit from leveraged contracts can far exceed spot costs. So, don’t blindly bet on rising or falling — the key is to follow the market maker’s rhythm and use visualized on-chain data to think in reverse.

The spot cost is roughly $40 million, with an unrealized profit of $100 million. But if they directly dump the spot holdings, it would be hard to truly cash out comfortably — everyone understands this. Therefore, they will continue manipulating the futures market to maximize profits.