What exactly is happening behind the recent trends in the crypto market? Let's take a look together.

【Key Reasons for Market Decline】
The yen interest rate hike is approaching, and market liquidity has significantly dried up. Funds in the US stock market are also panic selling, creating a chain reaction that directly impacts the entire financial market. Coupled with some top KOLs' contrarian actions (adding positions to go long), the market interprets this as a bearish signal.

【Current Market Outlook】
Honestly, now is not the time to hold long positions. I see the risk of a trend reversal. In a bear market, risk management should be the top priority. I expect Bitcoin to rebound to 97,000-100,000 (this is an ideal scenario), but the problem is—no positive news can stimulate a rise. As time passes, the risk of a trend reversal continues to accumulate. There are no significant catalysts worth positioning for.

Altcoins haven't shown a decent rebound. If Bitcoin also falters, the outcome will only be worse.

【Technical Analysis】
BTC is currently in a symmetrical triangle pattern, and next week is a potential trend reversal window. This pattern is highly similar to the one observed after October 11th: on November 4th, the price broke below the 107,000 ascending trendline, failed to stabilize during the rebound, and then experienced another decline, dropping to a low of 80,600.

The current support level is at 88,000. If this level is broken, a test around 74,500 is expected. The key resistance must hold above 95,000 to have a chance to break out of the downward channel and potentially push toward 100,000.

【Where are the Risks?】
Next week’s interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan could increase pressure. Market liquidity is already weak, and risk appetite is high. Whether the price breaks below 88,000 or rises to 95,000, I will further reduce my positions to mitigate risk. In such unpredictable market conditions, exiting timely is the wisest choice.