#美联储降息 Recently, the Federal Reserve's policy fluctuations have been frequent, and discussions around interest rate cuts in the crypto circle are becoming increasingly heated. I want to share some trading insights I’ve developed over the years—call it a "simple method," but the core logic stands the test.

**How to determine if a coin is being supported by a whale**
The clearest signals appear during a market crash. If the overall market halves in value but a certain coin only drops slightly, there’s usually capital deliberately stabilizing the price. These coins are worth long-term attention because there are signs of major players involved, and their rebound potential is relatively controllable.

**How to operate in short-term and mid-term**
For beginners, the two most practical technical indicators are: for short-term, monitor the 5-day moving average; hold the coin as long as the price stays above the 5-day MA, and decisively sell if it drops below. For mid-term, use the 20-day moving average—hold above it, and cut losses immediately if broken. It sounds simple, but few can strictly adhere to it. The method itself isn’t good or bad; the key is whether you can execute it with a stable mindset.

**Identification and operational logic of the main upward wave**
If the trend is clearly upward and the volume hasn’t significantly increased, it’s the best time to enter—buy decisively. If the volume continues to rise during holding, keep holding. Even if there’s a volume decrease and price drops, as long as the trend line isn’t broken, don’t rush to exit. The real danger signals are volume surges combined with breaking the trend line—then you must immediately reduce your position.

**Two bottom lines for short-term trading**
After buying in short-term, don’t just sit and wait. If the coin price shows no significant movement within three days, it’s time to sell—don’t expect miracles. Also, set a hard stop-loss—exit unconditionally if the loss reaches 5%. This line must be strictly guarded, or small losses can escalate into big ones.

**Opportunities for oversold rebounds**
When a coin drops half from its top and continues falling for 8 consecutive trading days, it enters an "extremely pessimistic" zone. Rebounds often brew at this time. You can consider trying a small amount, but heavy positions are not recommended.

**Why leading coins are worth paying attention to**
Leading coins have two obvious features: they surge fiercely when rising and are resilient during declines. Many people make the mistake of chasing rallies or bottom-fishing when prices fall sharply—that’s wrong. The essence of leading coins is to pursue "buy high, sell higher," rather than greedily seeking the bottom.

**Following the trend is the key**
The ideal entry price isn’t the lowest, but the most suitable. Don’t easily judge the bottom during a decline—that’s self-deception. For weak-performing coins, just let go when necessary. The trend is always the most important criterion—if your trend judgment is correct, you’ve already won half the battle.

**Reflect on profits**
Short-term gains can easily make you complacent, but that might just be luck. Consistent profit is the real skill. After each trade, review carefully—was the profit due to market cooperation or was your judgment truly skilled? Building a stable trading system that fits your style is essential for achieving long-term gains.

**Reduce trading frequency to improve success rate**
Forcing trades when you lack confidence is a big mistake. Holding cash is also a reasonable trading state. Learning when to do nothing is more valuable than learning how to trade frequently. The primary goal of trading isn’t to make the most trades but to preserve your capital. It’s never about how often you trade but your ultimate win rate.