The battle for the new Federal Reserve Chair heats up, with two heavyweight candidates vying for the spotlight.

One is Hasset. He has been widely questioned for his high-profile remarks and too-close ties to Trump, with reservations both inside and outside the party. But recently, he has shifted his strategy—moving towards a low-profile approach, emphasizing independent decision-making, and even sending goodwill signals to other Fed officials. On the surface, these moves seem to pave the way for him.

The other is Waugh. This candidate is equally formidable. As an advocate of the neutral interest rate school, he emphasizes data-driven decisions and reverence for inflation. Having worked in Wall Street for many years, he is well-versed in the internal ecosystem of the Republican Party. The only potential risk is that his relationship with Trump is more like a business partnership than a close alliance, which means he might not act entirely according to Trump’s wishes.

So why is Trump focusing on these two individuals simultaneously?

From a game theory perspective, this is a strategic move. First, by creating suspense, it diminishes external doubts about Hasset and lays the groundwork for an official nomination; second, Waugh’s presence provides a balancing point within the party—stabilizing support inside the Republican Party; third, the ultimate winner is likely still Hasset, because nominal "obedience" remains a key factor in this political ecosystem.

Markets are fluctuating, probabilities are changing, but the overall direction seems to have been set long ago. Based on current signals, Hasset remains the most competitive candidate for the Fed Chair position. The final decision will have a profound impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy orientation, which in turn will influence liquidity expectations in the global crypto asset market.