Key Events of Market Attention Recently

Recent discussions about Ethereum mainly focus on the following directions, covering macro environment changes and the impact of specific technical updates.

· Wall Street and New Regulatory Narratives
· Main Viewpoint: Some analysts believe that a new chain of capital networks has formed between Wall Street and Washington: U.S. political and economic elites → U.S. Treasuries → Stablecoins/Crypto Wallets → Ethereum + RWA (Real Assets) + L2. The SEC chairman's recent statement about the migration of the entire U.S. financial market to blockchain in the coming years has reinforced this expectation.
· Impact Analysis: This is seen as a strong structural bull narrative, where traditional financial assets (such as U.S. Treasuries) could eventually be accumulated on Ethereum and its Layer 2s through tokenization, forming a robust value support.
· Fusaka Upgrade and Deflation Expectations
· Main Changes: The recent Fusaka upgrade on Ethereum aims to address the issue of insufficient L1 value in L2 development. The upgrade introduces a mechanism that incentivizes L2 activity to pay minimum data fees, part of which is burned.
· Key Indicators: After the upgrade, Blob transaction fees become the largest contributor to ETH burning, accounting for up to 98%, with over 1500 ETH burned daily. If L2 activity continues to grow, ETH may re-enter a deflationary state.
· Market Structure and Technical Signals
· Position Changes: Market data show that ETH holdings on exchanges are at historic lows, about 10% of the total supply, indicating limited potential sell pressure.
· Market Sentiment: After the downturn, speculative leverage in the cryptocurrency industry has fallen to historic lows (for example, 4%), indicating that panic sentiment has been fully released. Meanwhile, ETH/BTC has remained range-bound since November, and the previous "long BTC/short ETH" strategy has lost effectiveness.
· Core Logic: Currently, the rapid growth of Ethereum (L2) and its impact on the main chain remain unclear. Despite capital inflows into ETH ETFs, their scale and influence may be limited.

Overall, market sentiment toward Ethereum is complex but generally optimistic:

· The main bullish scenario is based on the big narrative of "traditional finance on chain," value capture from technological upgrades, deflationary models, and healthy structural adjustments after leverage positions exit.
· Pessimistic or cautious assessments are related to the actual value of L2 growth and the uncertainty regarding the duration of ETF capital inflows. $ETH