#美联储降息 The rate cut is coming, but stocks and cryptocurrencies haven't risen — this is the real problem.

On the surface, the policy looks fine, but the dot plot reveals a crucial detail: the market is expecting three rate cuts next year, while the Federal Reserve has only projected one. Where's the promised easing? Even more frustrating, the next rate cut is only expected to be 55 basis points.

But the most critical factor isn't these numbers, but Powell's recent comments. He directly raised the threshold for rate cuts — this signal is very sensitive. Remember December last year? After raising the threshold last time, the Fed immediately paused, stopping for nine months before taking any further action. The market is now fearing a repeat of history.

In the short term, the expectation of rate cuts can indeed create market volatility. In the long run, we need to keep a close eye on the future trajectory of the federal funds rate.