Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, signaling a dovish stance that exceeded expectations. However, the harsh realities in the artificial intelligence sector have dealt a cold shower to US stocks and the bond market — the divergence situation is exceptionally complex. The key moving forward is not the central bank itself, but the data.

Next week, the US Department of Labor will release a flurry of reports on non-farm employment, consumer inflation, and retail sales — these are the barometers for assessing the true health of the economy. Specifically, keep an eye on these key points:

**Monday evening**, the New York Fed Manufacturing Index and speeches by Milan officials will be released sequentially, followed by Chairman Williams' remarks on the economic outlook — this will serve as the first market sentiment test.

**Tuesday is Non-Farm Payrolls Day**, with November unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm employment figures, and October retail sales all due. The quality of this data will directly influence market confidence in a soft landing for the economy.

**Thursday is the main event** — November CPI data. This is the real bombshell of the week. Currently, CPI is stuck at 3%, still far from the Fed’s 2% target. If the data comes in below expectations, the legitimacy of the Fed's rate-cut cycle will be solidified, and the US dollar may face continued downward pressure, which is positive for cryptocurrencies; but if the data exceeds expectations and rises, a rebound in the dollar could follow.

In simple terms, next week’s CPI is the true turning point that will determine the dollar’s direction and influence the rhythm of the crypto market. All other data are just supporting roles.