#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 The Bank of Japan is expected to announce a rate hike decision at the meeting on December 18-19—this is almost a certainty.

**Numbers Speak**

The central bank plans to raise the policy interest rate from the current 0.5% to around 0.75%, a 25 basis point increase. This is the highest level since September 1995. What does this mean? Japan’s 30-year super-low interest rate era is coming to an end.

Governor Ueda Kazuo’s previous comments were interpreted by the market as having deeper implications—he mentioned weighing the "pros and cons" of a rate hike. This statement at the time boosted market expectations for a rate increase, with the current consensus over 80% probability of it happening. The government’s stance aligns with this view, and it is generally expected to accept the decision, significantly reducing political resistance.

**Why does this matter for $BTC, $ETH, $SOL?**

Here’s a classic arbitrage chain. Over the past decades, global investors have been borrowing Japanese yen—at extremely low costs. They convert yen into dollars, then invest in US stocks or buy cryptocurrencies—high-yield, high-risk assets. As long as the BOJ keeps interest rates stable, this business remains profitable.

But once the central bank begins to hike rates, the game changes. The cost of borrowing yen rises, and the yen tends to appreciate (investors scramble to repay debts in yen). At this point, those positions borrowed to speculate are forced to close—liquidating risk assets to repay loans in yen. The cryptocurrency market, being highly sensitive to liquidity, is naturally the first to react.

**Early signs are already visible**

After Ueda Kazuo signaled in early December, this pressure started to surface. Japanese government bond yields hit multi-year highs, the yen strengthened significantly, and assets like Bitcoin began to weaken. This is not a coincidence; it’s the early move of arbitrage traders turning around.

**Baseline scenario vs. variables**

The most likely scenario is a 25 basis point rate hike. If the BOJ surprises with a 50 basis point increase? That would cause much greater shock. Conversely, if the central bank suddenly delays the hike? Although less likely, the market must still be prepared for such an unexpected move.

Overall, this step by the Bank of Japan will transmit pressure to the global crypto market through yen appreciation and liquidity tightening in the short term. How far this adjustment will go depends on the central bank’s subsequent pace.